Would Gordon Brown Have Won the 2015 General Elections If He Was Labour Leader?

In the aftermath of the 2015 general elections, questions often arise regarding what might have been had different leaders taken the helm. In particular, the scenario of Gordon Brown as Labour leader instead of Ed Miliband has sparked considerable debate. Critics argue that Brown's resignation, the loss of party support, and his stance on European affairs would have likely doomed him from victory. On the flip side, supporters claim that his financial acumen and political experience could have turned the election's tide in his favor. This article delves into the arguments for and against the possibility of Brown winning the 2015 general elections.

Support for Why Gordon Brown Would Not Have Won

Loss of Party Support
First and foremost, Gordon Brown lost the support of the party, from MPs to grassroots members. This is a critical factor as a candidate must secure the support of the party to become the party leader, and subsequently, a strong candidate for the general elections.

At the time of his appointment, Brown did not secure the same level of support that Tony Blair had when he took over from Tony Blair. His leadership during this period was marked by a lack of charisma and political missteps. As one expert puts it, 'He was charisma-free, dour, and 'prudent,' and even his financial genius impression during the crisis was not enough to redeem him.'

Arguments For Why Gordon Brown Might Have Won

Financial Genius
Proponents of Gordon Brown argue that his financial expertise and skills could have significantly impacted the election. The financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent global recession were hot topics in the 2015 general election. Brown's ability to navigate the financial sector and steer the economy out of the crisis would have been a key talking point for the Labour Party.

However, the issue of Tony Blair's involvement in the Iraq War casts a shadow on this argument. Critics point out that Blair's controversial actions and public perception as a liar and a troublemaker during the war made him unelectable. Brown himself acknowledged this, stating that 'those claiming Tony Blair would have won are not thinking of the times then where Blair’s behavior in his 7 wars, showing he was a liar, made Blair unelectable.'

Why Gordon Brown Would Not Have Won

Stance on EU Referendum
One of the crux issues in the 2015 election was the promise of an EU referendum. This was a significant factor in David Cameron's victory. Gordon Brown, being a staunch Europhile, would not have made such a promise. The UK electorate's demand for a say in their relationship with the EU was a major factor that Brown, with his pro-EU stance, could not satisfy.

Another argument is that Brown's lack of appeal and the party's inability to build a solid anti-Tory coalition would have hindered any potential win. As one expert points out, 'The Lib Dems would have much preferred to work with Labour than the Tories. Talks went on for days. But Brown could not accept that he was damaged goods and the coalition would have needed a different leader as PM. He was a bit of a diva about it.'

Alternative Scenarios

Ed Miliband's Leadership
Examining the reality of Ed Miliband's leadership, it becomes evident that he inherited a less-than-ideal situation. As a result of the unions' decision to appoint him over his brother David, Miliband was seen as a lame duck, unwanted by most of the party. Miliband's efforts to ensure the membership's vote would prevail in future changes only bolstered this perception.

Had Ed Miliband not been chosen as the Labour Party leader, another candidate, such as the much-discussed David Miliband, might have had a better chance. Expert analysis suggests that 'David Miliband would probably have beaten David Cameron in 2015. No Brexit, no austerity, and proper funding for the NHS.'

The Union's Role

Lastly, it is vital to note the role of the unions, particularly Len McCluskey's Unite, in the appointment of Ed Miliband over David Miliband. This decision, despite David Miliband being the preferred choice of the membership as a whole, ultimately contributed to the Union's unpopularity and aided in the coalition's defeat.

In conclusion, while Gordon Brown's financial acumen and political experience might have improved the Labour Party's position in the 2015 general elections, several factors such as party support, EU referendum promises, and leader perception would have ultimately led to his defeat. The alternative scenario of David Miliband, a respected candidate, might have offered a better path to victory.