Predictions and Reflections: The 2024 US Presidential Election
As the final states wind down their count, it is evident that the 2024 US Presidential Election saw significant changes in voter sentiment compared to the recent past. My predictions over the years have often been correct, but this time, I find myself reflecting on why my assumptions fell short.
The Irrelevance of Predictions
Trace my journey from late predictions to accurate ones. I do not make predictions as a tradition, nor do I believe in the precision of legacy media pollsters who often manipulate statistics for their agendas. However, since 2008, my predictions regarding the presidential election have been spot-on, regardless of my personal biases.
2004 and the Rise of Social Media
My prediction faltered in 2004 when John Kerry was expected to win, not least because the media disenfranchised me with their reports about George W. Bush's popularity. This experience taught me that social media platforms were changing the landscape and presenting a more diverse and authentic picture of public opinion. On platforms like Facebook, YouTube, and others, Barack Obama's popularity was clear over John McCain.
The Rise of Donald Trump: An Unlikely Victory
In 2016, the real surprise came when Donald Trump won despite widespread skepticism. The presence of a strong pro-Trump movement online suggested a possible victory, particularly in swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin. These states' voter demographics, unsurprisingly aligned more with the Republican Party, ensured his victory. Even with popular vote losses, Trump's edge in electoral college votes was significant from 2016 to 2024.
The 2020 Election: Biden's Narrow Victory
For the 2020 election, I predicted a narrow Biden victory. Given the initial shock of Trump leading in early vote counts, my assessment might have been too cautious. Regardless, the election showed Biden was not a sure bet. His outdated policies and failure to address voter concerns led to a narrow victory, with Kamala Harris gaining a slight edge over Trump.
2024 and the Resurgence of Trump
This year, I predicted a closer win for Donald Trump. From my analysis, even though he was less popular than in 2020, his smaller margin of victory was due to voter disillusionment with Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party. The popular vote count showed Trump received fewer votes compared to the 2020 election, but his electoral count was still higher.
Understanding the Election Results
The results indicate that Trump did not gain significant popularity, but rather, the Democratic Party lost many voters. The popular vote saw Harris lose for the first time since 2004. The 140 million total votes compared to 155 million in 2020 reflect a decrease in voter turnout, signaling voter fatigue and dissatisfaction with both major parties.
Lessons for Future Elections
The shortcomings in both parties were clear. The Democratic Party needed to address voter concerns more effectively, acknowledging their faults and implementing genuine changes rather than superficial policies. On the Republican side, a more engaging and less divisive approach could have improved voter turnout. The state media's influence also played a crucial role, either by encouraging or deterring voters, similar to what we saw in the past.
In conclusion, the 2024 election results provide valuable insights into voter behavior and the broader political climate. As we move forward, understanding these dynamics will be crucial for making informed predictions and for improving the effectiveness of future campaigns.