Introduction

The question of what the world would look like if Russia had won the war in Ukraine is one that challenges our understanding of geopolitics and international relations. Here, we explore the implications of a quick Russian victory in 2023, comparing it with the current lasting conflict and future scenarios.

The Immediate Aftermath

If Russia had swiftly achieved military dominance in Ukraine as planned, the immediate landscape would be markedly different from the current scenario. Russia would attempt to maintain a more territorial control, assimilating Ukraine into its sphere of influence. This would result in a 'frozen conflict' zone, where de jure Ukrainian lands are de facto under Russian control.

Russian Expansionism

In the short term, Russia could further expand into Eastern and Northern Europe, perceiving the victory as a sign of its military and political prowess. The ramifications would be far-reaching, with international relations and global stability being significantly affected. Russia would feel emboldened to impose its status quo, reminiscent of the pre-war era where minority groups, especially Russian-speaking ones, would retain their identity and connections to the Russian Federation.

Long-term Consequences and Satellite States

Over time, Ukraine would likely evolve into a satellite state of the Russian Federation, much like Belarus. The geopolitical landscape would shift, with a clear division between Russian-controlled areas and the rest of Ukraine. The cultural and political landscape in these Russian-held territories would be Russianified, enhancing the influence of Russian-speaking minorities and creating a stark contrast with the West-leaning regions of Ukraine.

The EU’s Role and the Fate of Minorities

However, the scenario would differ greatly if the EU and Western nations supported Ukraine’s resistance. In this case, the situation might have evolved significantly. The EU’s inaction or support for Ukraine could lead to a more contentious geopolitical environment, potentially leading to more aggressive actions by Russia against minority groups. This could result in a humanitarian crisis, with tens of millions of people facing ethnic cleansing or displacement.

The Human Cost and Ethical Considerations

The war in Ukraine is not just a military conflict but a battle for the existence of minority groups. Moscow's aim was to preserve and entrench pro-Russian identities, while Kyiv sought to eliminate these identities to prevent secessionist movements. Both sides’ actions highlight the tension between protecting indigenous minorities and maintaining national unity.

Greater Fear: The EU's Hypocrisy

The current situation in Ukraine is a testament to the EU’s failure to address the issue of indigenous minorities. The absence of common laws that protect and preserve the existence of minorities in certain EU member states raises ethical concerns. This hypocrisy exacerbates the danger of a potential Russian victory, as it could lead to more aggressive policies towards minorities at the expense of broader stability.

Alternative Scenarios

Another perspective is that Russia's victory might be less catastrophic than imagined. Instead of a complete annexation, a more balanced scenario where de jure Ukrainian lands are de facto under Russian control could prevent a superpower-scale conflict. Years would pass, and the cultural and political landscape would slowly change, with Russian influence increasing. However, the war would likely become a unifying factor, strengthening nationalistic sentiments in both Ukraine and neighboring countries.

Conclusion

While the scenario of a quick Russian victory in the Ukraine conflict is dystopian, it raises important questions about geopolitical trends, minority rights, and the role of international law. The complexities of such a scenario underscore the need for a more cohesive and ethical approach to protecting minorities and maintaining global peace.